Re-evolving ME: Arab Spring (Part-4)

In the early 2010s, the Deep State’s well orchestrated Arab Spring revolutionary wave created major protests and uprisings to several Middle Eastern and Arab-majority countries' governments. It started in December 2010 with the Tunisian revolution, which forced the resignation of the country's president Zaine al-Abidine Ben Ali. In January 2011, the Egyptian Revolution started, which forced the resignation of Hosni Mubarak in February. In Bahrain, protests against the government in February and March 2011 were violently suppressed by the government. In March, protests in Syria against Bashar Al-Assad were violently suppressed, leading to the Syrian civil war that year.  

Year 2012 was successful for Syrian rebel groups opposing al-Assad, establishing a foothold in Aleppo. The civil war soon became a proxy war, as al-Assad received support from Hezbollah, Iran, and Russia, while rebel groups—starting to have their own infighting—received support from Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and the U.S. In August 2013, hundreds of civilians in Damascus were killed in a chemical attack by the al-Assad regime. In September, Syria, the U.S., and Russia made an agreement that al-Assad would rid Syria of chemical weapons, which was successfully carried out. Meanwhile, an Islamist al-Qaeda affiliate called the Al-Nusra Front (led by Ahmed Hussein al-Sharaa aka Abu Mohammad al-Julani) gained military success in Syria.

In 2013, the Islamic State (IS), started an offensive that took large amounts of territory in Iraq and Syria, fighting both the Iraqi government and, in Syria, al-Assad and his opposing rebels. In June 2014, IS proclaimed themselves a caliphate led by Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi. In 2016, the Al-Nusra Front cut ties with al-Qaeda and soon dissolved, succeeded by the group Tahrir al-Sham in 2017. There was an international military campaign against IS in Iraq and Syria from 2013 to 2017, which fed into the Syrian civil war. The U.S. and a coalition of Arab countries bombed IS; Russia bombed IS and unrelated Syrian rebel groups. The U.S. allied with Kurdish-aligned forces such as the Syrian Democratic Forces. Turkey and the Kurds continued their decades-long war with each other, while both were allied with the U.S. and fighting IS. Turkey backed Syrian rebels along the Syria–Turkey border, and the Turkish military directly occupied part of northern Syria in August 2016 to fight IS and the Kurds. IS was thus fighting three simultaneous fronts: al-Assad, Kurds, and Turkey, as well as each of their allies. Outnumbered, IS lost control of three major cities: Aleppo, Raqqa, and Deir al-Zour. The group was "effectively defeated" by November 2017, though they kept a small territory until 2019. In 2018, Israel targeted Iranian soldiers stationed in Syria. Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi was  killed in Syria in October 2019, amidst an attack on him by U.S. forces. While the original IS organization declined, a branch of IS based in south-Central Asia named Islamic State – Khorasan Province became more powerful in the 2020s. 

In 2014, Israel significantly obliterated Hamas in response to a skirmish limiting it's ability to greatly attack Israel for around a decade. In 2022, Benjamin Netanyahu returned as Israeli prime minister, cementing what CNN referred to as "Israel’s likely most right-wing government ever". On 7 October 2023, either as a strategic miscalculation or by inadvertently walking into an induced trap, Hamas launched a large-scale surprise attack on Israel, reportedly killing around 1,200 people, the majority Israeli civilians and hundreds taken hostage. Hezbollah began rocket attacks on Israel, and Israel responded with air strikes. Israel also conducted air strikes on Gaza, followed by a full land invasion. Between 7 October 2023 and 22 February 2025, according to the Ministry of Health in Gaza, at least 48,339 Palestinians have been killed in Gaza and 1,11753 have been injured,  and almost the whole of the Gaza strip has been destroyed. The agreed ceasefire brokered by Qatar and USA continues to be violated by Israel with the US President's controversial plans for Gaza and relocation of Palestinian in other unwilling Arab states. Israel was accused by multiple countries and international organizations of committing a genocide of Palestinians. Iran formed an anti-Israel "axis of resistance" with Hamas, Hezbollah, Syria, and Yemeni Houthis. Iran and Israel launched air strikes at each other without any significant damage to either of them. Bravely or foolishly, the Houthis attacked shipping in the Red Sea, leading to a U.S.-led military response.

In September 2024, Israeli intelligence launched a widespread attack in Lebanon, by flooding the country with electronic devices such as pagers, which exploded and killed some civilians instead of Hezbollah leaders. In October, Israel invaded Lebanon, escalating their conflict with Hezbollah, resulting in occupation of some Lebanese areas  by Israelis.

In December 2024, a coalition of Syrian opposition armies captured Damascus, forcing Bashar al-Assad to flee the country to Russia, ending Ba'athist Syria. After the fall of Ba'athist Iraq, Syria was the only country governed by neo-Baathists. It had a comprehensive cult of personality around the Assad family, and attracted widespread condemnation for its severe domestic repression and war crimes. Prior to the fall of Assad, Syria was ranked fourth-worst in the 2024 Fragile States Index, and it was one of the most dangerous places in the world for journalists. Freedom of the press was extremely limited, and the country was ranked second-worst in the 2024 World Press Freedom Index. It was the most corrupt country in the MENA region and was ranked the second-worst globally on the 2023 Corruption Perceptions Index. Syria had also become the epicentre of an Assad-sponsored Captagon industry, exporting billions of dollars worth of the illicit drug annually, making it one of the largest narco-states in the world.

Since 2022, al-Assad had received less support from Russia, who were "bogged down" in the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Ahmed al-Sharaa, the head of Tahrir al-Sham from 2017 to 2025, became president of Syria's new national government on 29 January 2025. As of now, the whole Middle East stands badly mauled, splintered, plundered and in a state of flux. In the bigger strategic contest, the US focus is once again shifting on Southern part of Eurasia with spotlight on Iran and Afghanistan with same old ominous role and fallout for Pakistan that is already confronted with multiple challenges like resurgence of worse terrorism, weak economy, polemic judicial system, badly polarised politics and a lame-duck  government; thus, any strategic realignment and new decision needs to be based on the lessons learned from the regional geopolitical developments, national environment and strategic judgments  made in the last five decades.

...to be concluded.