The Impending Punch

                Hamas’s political chief Ismail Haniyeh was assassinated in Iran’s capital, Tehran, on 31 July 2024 and Israel was blamed for his killing. Ismail Haniyeh was in Tehran to attend the inauguration ceremony of Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian; a day later Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that Israel had delivered crushing blows to Iran’s proxies in recent days, including Hamas and Hezbollah. The news of the assassination ignited rage across Palestine and fuelled fears about a wider regional conflict in the wake of Israel’s war on Gaza. So far, approximately 40,000 Palestinians have been killed in Israel’s war, now in its 11th month, with almost 100,000 wounded. Israel began attacking Gaza, promising to eliminate Hamas and kill its leaders after the group launched an attack on October 7 in southern Israel that led to the killing of some 1,139 people and more than 200 being taken captive. Meanwhile, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei promised “harsh punishment”; “We consider it our duty to avenge his blood in this bitter and difficult incident that happened in the territory of the Islamic Republic,” Khamenei said.

Reportedly, Lebanon’s Iran-backed Hezbollah and Israel have been exchanging fire over their borders while Yemen’s Houthi rebels have been assaulting Israeli-linked ships in the Red Sea and other waters. However, so far, the threatened revenge by Iran has not materialized and the impending punch is getting interpreted in different ways. Some renowned regional experts believe that the so-called “Axis of Resistance” (mainly the Islamic Resistance in Iraq, the Syrian government, the Lebanese political party Hezbollah, the Yemeni political and military organization Ansar Allah, and Hamas) has the potential to launch attacks on Israel from a variety of directions, including the Houthi in Yemen from the south, Hezbollah in Lebanon from the north, Hamas carrying out operations in the Gaza Strip from the west, and Iran from the east. Moreover, there are Islamic militias in both Iraq and Syria. A major factor in Iranian rhetoric and ideology is the anti-American and anti-Israeli stance; ironically not shared by Arab World or OIC as an entity. However, despite some inherent differences, the “Axis of Resistance” factions are united by the common foe. Within the “Axis of Resistance,” the relationship between Iran and Hezbollah is the strongest, both in terms of similarities and worldviews, as well as for historical reasons. Moreover, because Hezbollah is significantly more centrally structured, it is much easier for Iran to exert influence through the group’s leadership. Iran has solid contacts with both the Houthis and Hamas, although the religious relationship between the two groups is much less intimate. However, they operate with much more independence than Hezbollah. This does not prevent Iran from providing significant support to these two militant groups on an equal footing with the other groups it supports.

According to leading Western analysts, Tehran is the place where the various components of this resistance group come together and maintain logistical and ideological cohesion and connectivity. On the other hand, Iran is unable to command the various factions as if they were its own army. Iran’s influence over different groups differs; it may have a substantial degree of sway over matters of a strategic nature, yet it is likely that these various groups implement strategy and operational tactics in their own exclusive methods. And that is one main reason that is keeping Iran’s announced big vengeful response looming, while tactfully avoiding any direct confrontation with the USA, Israel and other allies. But more importantly, Western governments and their leaders are failing to resolve these Middle East conflicts in a sustainable manner because they don’t look closely enough at the details of the issues and, as a result, don’t appropriately scrutinize the factors that lead to these conflicts. Many observers in the United States and Europe erroneously believe that merely the purging of external actors will lead to a smooth resolution of all issues in the region. There is a need to evaluate each conflict in the Middle East based on its distinctive characteristics. Although Iran may have substantial influence; yet, it must be remembered that all actors and each faction in the Middle East is endeavoring to attain its own objectives.

Nevertheless, while the innocent Palestinians’ blood keeps spilling as a result of the unprecedented holocaust unleashed by Israel in Gaza; the UNO, OIC, Arab League and all other international organisations and international conscience remains in slumber. Who knows what will be the ultimate consequences of the ragging war in Gaza/ Palestine and how will it unfold for the geopolitics and security in the world in general and in the Middle East in particular. While Israeli Prime Minister and his far right government seems well determined to sweep and occupy whole of Palestine projecting Hamas’ tactical blunder as an excuse, it is for the Arab World, Iran and other strong Muslim countries to call an immediate OIC summit to send a unified response to USA/ Israel on the diplomatic, economic and all other fronts. The forgotten wisdom encapsulated in the idiom, “United we stand; divided we fall” has already cost the Muslim World so excruciatingly. Let that be the real punch to save innocent Muslims in Palestine and elsewhere.