This piece is a sequel to earlier published piece “A New Trump’s Era”. A much delayed ceasefire that came after ensuring merciless genocide of the hapless Palestinian civilians of all ages and gender was announced a couple of days before swearing in of Mr. Donald Trump as 49th POTUS, who proclaimed to be a peacemaker instead of a war monger. However, before the applause could even fade out, President Trump went ahead with implementation of his announcements and immediate signing off a number of controversial bills causing geopolitical, economic and security tremors all over the globe. Canada, Mexico, Colombia, China, Panama, Ukraine, Iran, KSA, many other oil rich Arab countries and India are feeling greater heat in particular. Trumpism is associated with the belief that the President is above the rule of law. It has been referred to as an American political variant of the far-right and the national-populist and Neo-nationalist sentiment seen in multiple nations starting in the mid-late 2010s. Trumpian here means resembling or pertaining to the philosophy, rhetoric, and style of Donald Trump. While Mr. Trump’s ultra nationalistic approach is music to his American vote bank; yet others view it as a double edged sword especially with regards to tariff chess game, trade war, anti-immigration bent, pushing NATO to take a lead in defence of Europe with minimum 5% of GDP share by member countries and above all his dream of physical annexation of Canada, Mexico, Panama, Greenland and finally turning absolutely decimated Gaza belt in Palestine into a ‘Trumpian Villanova’ that smacks of his property tycoon’s business approach.
Most of the experts opine that in an attempt to weaponize the U.S. tariffs on America’s big trade partners against China, President Trump is basing bad economics on worse geopolitics. It could prove a costly preliminary to a global downswing. On February 1, President Trump imposed 25% tariffs and 10% duties on energy products on Canada and Mexico, and 10% tariffs on China. The three countries are America’s greatest trade partners and the United States has a trade deficit with each. The Trump tariffs could cause Canada’s GDP to fall as much as 3%, while Mexico’s could suffer a 2% drop, by some estimates. A trade war between the U.S. and its two largest trading partners would also hit U.S. income, hurt employment and increase inflation. According to President Trump, the Mexico and Canada tariffs were imposed because these countries had not halted migration and drug trafficking over U.S. borders. Although both countries rushed to pacify Trump’s border concerns, yet only to face lingering demands. As Trump’s tariffs went into effect against China, Beijing announced a broad package of economic measures targeting the United States on February 10 and more may follow. In an attempt to expand and consolidate USA’s sphere of influence, from Mexico to Panama – into Colombia, Trump hopes to use geopolitics to force these countries into a US-controlled North American bloc, to undermine China’s economic role in the Americas. Hence, Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s visit to Panama and Panama President’s decision to end a key development deal with China, to avoid Trump’s threat to retake Panama Canal. As for Trump’s anti-immigrant drive, after Colombia refused to accept two US military aircraft with Colombian citizens deported from the US, Washington threatened tariffs and sanctions on Bogota and under duress, Colombia agreeing to accept deportees and Trump claiming victory. India is facing a similar dilemma forcing PM Modi to rush to the USA to engage with the US administration and President Trump.
Finally a word about pulverized Gaza by Israel-USA joint venture and dream of converting it into “ Trump’s Villanova ” by expelling and relocating wretched Palestinian into Jordan and Egypt; which has been refuted carefully by head of both the states as well as by other Middle East countries including KSA. However, any letup by belligerent Israel leaping forward for complete realization of the Greater Israel dream with unwavering support by power intoxicated USA depends on collective global response ensuring respect to the international laws. From within the USA, Kentucky Senator Rand Paul came out strongly against the proposal. Senator Paul pointed out that the plan contradicted the American people’s vote for “America First.” Surprisingly, South Carolina Senator Lindsey Graham also expressed skepticism about sending Americans to take over Gaza. Besides, the threat of exercising other currencies like Chinese renminbi for its oil trade instead of American dollars by oil rich Arab countries including KSA and other BRICS countries may help in review of Trump’s overtures. US “ownership” of Gaza, accompanied by forcible relocation of Palestinians, may cause increased resentment and terror threats against the US.
Nevertheless, these tensions are not due to economic causes alone. Since tariffs no longer have effective economic rationales, they are today used selectively to protect certain domestic industries, advance foreign policy goals, or as negotiating leverage in trade negotiations. Since POTUS Trump’s onslaught does not seem to have been put through the establishment’s thorough scrutiny, only time will tell as to how his administration will find the middle grounds after unprecedented political, diplomatic, economic and security related challenges posed by the barrage of salvos fired in a hurry by their president. An unprecedented outreach by the IMF in Pakistan including meeting with CJP may be taken as a pointer. Finally, American lingering strategic interests in Eurasia are prone to bring Iran and Afghanistan once again under the spotlight with renewed focus and pressure on Pakistan with IS-K as an excuse to play the same old role ; so tighten your seat belts!
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